Time for an update to the Facebook Politics series. The last check was on April 21, where we found Obama with a commanding lead in supporters over everyone else on the planet. Two weeks later we see some interesting action but no change in the leader board.
Biggest increase in supporter numbers: Obama added 26,464 supporters in the last two weeks, compared to McCain (+6,873) and Clinton (+6,000). Ralph Nader picked up 286 more fans, Cynthia McKinney (Green) 97 more, Bob Barr (Libertarian) +91, and Mike Gravel (currently seeking Libertarian nomination) +81.
Add/Drop: I dropped Alan Keyes from the list after he lost his bid for the Constitution Party nomination, and added Chuck Baldwin, who won the Constitution Party nomination. Baldwin starts at the bottom of the list with 20 supporters, 16 shy of Michael Jingozian who is seeking the Libertarian nomination.
Biggest percent increase in supporter numbers: The third party candidates get the edge here due to their smaller numbers. Socialist Brian Moore increased his support by 32% (from 75 to 99), followed by Micheal Jingozian (Lib) who jumped 29% (from 28 to 36), and Bob Barr (Lib) who increased his support by 22% (from 419 to 510). These three were followed by Kat Swift (Green) at 15%, Mary Ruwart (Lib) at 12.5%, Wayne Allyn Root (Lib) at 9.9%, Cynthia McKinney at 8%, Ralph Nader at 7.5%, and Steve Kubby at 6.25%. Among the two corporate parties, McCain grew by 5.98%, Clinton by 4.05%, and Obama by 3.64%.
And now the run down: (Candidate, Party, current supporters, change from two weeks ago, percent change)
- Barack Obama (Dem) 809,569 / +28,464 / 3.64%
- Hillary Clinton (Dem) 154,200 / +6,000 / 4.05%
- John McCain (Rep) 121,767 / +6,873 / 5.98%
- Mike Gravel (Lib) 9,021 / +81 / 0.91%
- Ralph Nader (Ind) 4,056 / +286 / 7.59%
- Cynthia McKinney (Grn) 1,300 / +97 / 8.06%
- Bob Barr (Lib) 510 / +91 / 21.72%
- Wayne Allyn Root (Lib) 356 / +32 / 9.88%
- George Phillies (Lib) 257 / +2 / 0.78%
- Brian Moore (Socialist) 99 / +24 / 32.00%
- Mary Ruwart (Lib) 81 / +9 / 12.50%
- Steve Kubby (Lib) 51 / +3 / 6.25%
- Kat Swift (Grn) 46 / +6 / 15.00%
- Micheal Jingozian (Lib) 36 / +8 / 28.57%
- Chuck Baldwin (Con) 20 / New / New
Does this tell us anything interesting at all? 1. Obama is the God of Facebook; 2. McCain is keeping up with Clinton; 3. Nader is movin’ on up (and if Gravel doesn’t get the Libertarian nod Nader will be at the top of the “alternative” candidate list); 4. Cynthia McKinney & Bob Barr are pulling in new supporters, over 40 a week, as their campaigns get off the ground and get moving.
I’ll go out on a limb here and suggest that this may reflect the November results this year: Democrat, Republican, Nader, Libertarian, Green, Constitution, Socialist - although the Libertarian and Green finishes might flip flop depending a lot on who gets the Lib nomination.